The probability of surviving a kidney transplant and keeping the organ functioning well depends on several factors, but the overall success rates are very good. Here's a breakdown:

• Short-term: Up to 97% of transplanted kidneys survive for at least the first year (https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/kidney-transplant/about/pac-20384777).
• Long-term: Survival rates vary depending on the origin of the kidney (living donor vs. deceased donor) and recipient age.
  Living-donor kidneys generally have a higher survival rate:88.6% at 5 years for recipients aged 18-34 (https://srtr.transplant.hrsa.gov/annual_reports/2021/Kidney.aspx)
  82.1% at 5 years for recipients aged 65 and older (https://srtr.transplant.hrsa.gov/annual_reports/2021/Kidney.aspx)
  Deceased-donor kidneys have a slightly lower survival rate:80.7% at 5 years for recipients aged 18-34 (https://srtr.transplant.hrsa.gov/annual_reports/2021/Kidney.aspx)
  68.0% at 5 years for recipients aged 65 and older (https://srtr.transplant.hrsa.gov/annual_reports/2021/Kidney.aspx)
  

Additional factors affecting survival rates:

• Recipient's overall health and pre-existing conditions
• Matching between donor and recipient (better matching leads to better outcomes)
• Adherence to post-transplant medications to prevent rejection

It's important to note that these are general statistics. If you're considering a kidney transplant, your doctor can provide a more personalized estimate based on your specific circumstances.